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Abstract On Dec. 22, 2018, at approximately 20:55–57 local time, Anak Krakatau volcano, located in the Sunda Straits of Indonesia, experienced a major lateral collapse during a period of eruptive activity that began in June. The collapse discharged volcaniclastic material into the 250 m deep caldera southwest of the volcano, which generated a tsunami with runups of up to 13 m on the adjacent coasts of Sumatra and Java. The tsunami caused at least 437 fatalities, the greatest number from a volcanically-induced tsunami since the catastrophic explosive eruption of Krakatau in 1883 and the sector collapse of Ritter Island in 1888. For the first time in over 100 years, the 2018 Anak Krakatau event provides an opportunity to study a major volcanically-generated tsunami that caused widespread loss of life and significant damage. Here, we present numerical simulations of the tsunami, with state-of the-art numerical models, based on a combined landslide-source and bathymetric dataset. We constrain the geometry and magnitude of the landslide source through analyses of pre- and post-event satellite images and aerial photography, which demonstrate that the primary landslide scar bisected the Anak Krakatau volcano, cutting behind the central vent and removing 50% of its subaerial extent. Estimated submarine collapse geometries result in a primary landslide volume range of 0.22–0.30 km3, which is used to initialize a tsunami generation and propagation model with two different landslide rheologies (granular and fluid). Observations of a single tsunami, with no subsequent waves, are consistent with our interpretation of landslide failure in a rapid, single phase of movement rather than a more piecemeal process, generating a tsunami which reached nearby coastlines within ~30 minutes. Both modelled rheologies successfully reproduce observed tsunami characteristics from post-event field survey results, tide gauge records, and eyewitness reports, suggesting our estimated landslide volume range is appropriate. This event highlights the significant hazard posed by relatively small-scale lateral volcanic collapses, which can occuren-masse, without any precursory signals, and are an efficient and unpredictable tsunami source. Our successful simulations demonstrate that current numerical models can accurately forecast tsunami hazards from these events. In cases such as Anak Krakatau’s, the absence of precursory warning signals together with the short travel time following tsunami initiation present a major challenge for mitigating tsunami coastal impact.more » « less
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Abstract. The primary scientific objective of MexiDrill, the Basin of MexicoDrilling Program, is development of a continuous, high-resolution∼400 kyr lacustrine record of tropical North Americanenvironmental change. The field location, in the densely populated,water-stressed Mexico City region gives this record particular societalrelevance. A detailed paleoclimate reconstruction from central Mexico willenhance our understanding of long-term natural climate variability in theNorth American tropics and its relationship with changes at higher latitudes.The site lies at the northern margin of the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ), where modern precipitation amounts are influenced by sea surfacetemperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic basins. During the Last GlacialMaximum (LGM), more winter precipitation at the site is hypothesized to have beena consequence of a southward displacement of the mid-latitude westerlies. Itthus represents a key spatial node for understanding large-scalehydrological variability of tropical and subtropical North America and isat an altitude (2240 m a.s.l.), typical of much of western North America. In addition, its sediments contain a rich record of pre-Holocene volcanichistory; knowledge of the magnitude and frequency relationships of thearea's explosive volcanic eruptions will improve capacity for riskassessment of future activity. Explosive eruption deposits will also be usedto provide the backbone of a robust chronology necessary for fullexploitation of the paleoclimate record. Here we report initial resultsfrom, and outreach activities of, the 2016 coring campaign.more » « less
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Abstract We have successfully constructed and tested a new, portable, Hybrid Lister‐Outrigger (HyLO) probe designed to measure geothermal gradients in submarine environments. The lightweight, low‐cost probe is 1–3 m long and contains 4–12 semiconductor temperature sensors that have a temperature resolution of 0.002°C, a sample rate of <2 s, and a maximum working depth of ~2,100 m below sea level (mbsl). Probe endurance is continuous via ship power to water depths of ~700 mbsl or up to ~1 week on batteries in depths >500 mbsl. Data are saved on solid‐state disks, transferred directly to the ship during deployment via a data cable, or transmitted via Bluetooth when the probe is at the sea surface. The probe contains an accelerometer to measure tilt, internal pressure, temperature, and humidity gauges. Key advantages of this probe include (1) near‐real‐time temperature measurements and data transfer; (2) a low‐cost, transportable, and lightweight design; (3) easy and rapid two‐point attachment to a gravity corer, (4) short (3–5 min) thermal response times; (5) high temporal/spatial resolution; and (6) longer deployment endurance compared to traditional methods. We successfully tested the probe both in lakes and during sea trials in May 2019 offshore Montserrat during the R/V Meteor Cruise 154/2. Probe‐measured thermal gradients were consistent with seafloor ocean‐drilling temperature measurements. Ongoing probe improvements include the addition of real‐time bottom‐camera feeds and long‐term (6–12 months) deployment for monitoring.more » « less
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